A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."